Understanding Exponential Growth & Epidemics

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Post by Barry on Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:35 am

We're all in a health crisis right now. And it's scary.

It isn't the first time the world has had one, probably won't be the last.

The Covid-19 status changes so rapidly it's hard to keep up with what's going on.
But it can help if you have an understanding of the mathematics behind how a virus like this grows.

It does so exponentially.
If you don't remember your high school math too well this excellent video will explain it all in a straight forward manner.

Most importantly, it gives us a clear indication as to when to expect the growth to level off and stop.


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Post by Westbone on Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:27 pm

Canada update
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Post by ExFender on Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:40 pm

How true!

I have a lot of pollen allergies - mostly from anything that grows - that had been mostly dormant for the past 6-10 years and responded very well to one of the cheapest meddies.

Last week I started having a mild cough - didn't think much about it, but it developed into a chest-breaking hacker plus runny nose and sneezing, but NO fever.  Called my Doc, who asked a bunch of pointed questions which ticked 7 of 10 boxes, then asked if I had taken any of my allergy medicine... I felt kinda stupid because all those "checked" boxes also indicated allergenic reaction and I had completely forgotten that the pollen season started much earlier this year.

Doc told me to take my meddies and call back in the afternoon - about 5 hours later.  After 3 hours, I was nearly symptom free with only a sore chest and throat from all the coughing.  The follow up call went well, but the Doc stated that IF ANY ISSUES got worse, I was to call the local national health service for further action.  That was yesterday.  Today, no change and I feel MUCH better!  I haven't been "sick" (no fever) for the last 20 years and hope to stay that way.

If one feels sick in any way, don't rush to your doctor! Call first as they will probably have their hands full already, and answer ANY questions they might ask (describe your symptoms first)!

This pandemic is being laughed at by too many! Even intelligent people!  It IS serious!

My village has two confirmed as of last Saturday.
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Post by Barry on Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:04 pm

I hear ya about the allergies. I've had them all my life too.

Once upon a time I had desensitizing injections every few weeks, but I don't take much these days except antihistamine.

I occasionally get a dry cough or sneezing or an elevated temperature so I have to keep reminding myself that I'm not coming down with something nasty too.

Can scare the poo out of strangers though!


Last edited by Barry on Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:48 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Barry on Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:05 pm

Westbone wrote:Canada update
My Province is "winning"... Neutral

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Post by corsair on Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:04 pm

Australia has called all Australians abroad home and the national carrier has cut international fights by 95% and domestic by 60%... supermarket shelves are emptying fast... Australias' casual workforce is fast becoming a thing of the past with restaurants etc. shutting down... 

... wondering when the panicking will stop and people realise that simple precautions are all we need to 'flatten the curve', because make no mistake; this virus WILL go through the population like grain through a goose - what we need to do is slow the soread enough to allow hospitals to administer care without being swamped!!

Take care out there, troops - our parents went through a depression and a war;  should be able to cope with this!

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Post by Barry on Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:50 pm

Quite right! Thumb Up

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Understanding Exponential Growth & Epidemics Empty C'mon Canada Get Serious!

Post by Barry on Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:32 pm

In Canada today we heard rumblings from the Prime Minister about people not being compliant enough with the "Social Distancing" directive from virtually every Health Official, everywhere.
So much so that we are now that much closer to a "Shelter in Place" order! Chores1

If you think it's annoying now folks, just wait until you cannot even leave your house!
And the Armed Forces will be there to enforce it! Hunting

So c'mon now!
Seriously, how friggin' hard is it to stay 2m (6ft) away from someone in public while waiting in line to get your groceries?! Leaving Now

And as for those stupid students on the beach during March break, and the idiot officials who let it happen...well, thanks a lot for making everything worse.  Angry Bart Moon

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Post by Westbone on Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:57 pm

Total lock down here in the UK
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Post by Barry on Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:22 pm

Heard that.
All the best, I don't think we're too far behind.

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Post by corsair on Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:07 am

... I don't think anyone's too far behind!! 

Strike me pink, there're some mouth-breathing morons in Australia... if they're not hoarding food and bumwrap then they're milling about the beaches etc.?! I mean, really?! Are they brain-dead?!
The federal government are busy running about like headless chooks...TV and the media are busy running around frightening mouth-breathers even more than they already are... it's a bloody mess!
Officialdom needs to piss or get off the pot - people cannot be trusted to do the right thing, so total lockdown!!

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Post by Barry on Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:20 pm

Sad ain't it?

And what the hell is it about friggin' toilet paper of all things?!
COVID-19 does not increase the amount or frequency of defecation. Hurry Up!
I'd sooner have sufficient food and water than a ton of paper to eat.

But if Darwinian selection kicks in, those brain dead idiots will soon be just plain dead!

p.s.
And speaking of brain dead idiots, Trump's latest pronouncements about starting up the economy by Easter regardless of the science and state of the pandemic should really shake loose a large chunk of the population.

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Post by ExFender on Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:04 pm

Barry wrote:Sad ain't it?

And what the hell is it about friggin' toilet paper of all things?!
COVID-19 does not increase the amount or frequency of defecation.  Hurry Up!
I'd sooner have sufficient food and water than a ton of paper to eat.

But if Darwinian selection kicks in, those brain dead idiots will soon be just plain dead!

p.s.
And speaking of brain dead idiots, Trump's latest pronouncements about starting up the economy by Easter regardless of the science and state of the pandemic should really shake loose a large chunk of the population.
Don't bet on it.  Drumpanzees are a remarkable lot.  If Dummpy states that all those nice round piles in the back 40 are Mom's best chocolate cake, his followers will scarf the stuff up and claim it's the bestest they've ever eaten.
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Post by The Chad on Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:16 pm

Hello Men!  I'm still alive and well, been busy being a Dad, worship/arts pastor, and territory manager!  

American update:

A lot of bravado amongst the sub 50 year old segment.  This causes a lack of caution and hence danger for all.  

In my state, Pennsylvania, our Governor has not initiated a lock down so to speak, but encourages social distancing and to limit gatherings to 10 or less.

There is a list of "essential businesses" that are allowed to remain open for business.  These include grocery stores, health care, gas stations... 

And...

Beer distributors
Building supply businesses 
Some construction
Laundromats
and more.  
Some make sense, some don't.  

So all in all, NYC is the hardest hit by FAR.  My county has only 4 cases, that they know of.  

Stay safe out there, everyone.  Wash you hands and be smart.  Look out for others and pray.  God bless you all!
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Post by Barry on Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:15 pm

Good to hear from you Chad, and that you're well.
Please stay that way! Wink

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